The core model is a so called Constrained Cellular Automata model
(Engelen et al. 2003. White and Engelen 1997). It does not function all
on its own however. Instead, a tight integration with several other
models makes the LOV a highly dynamic system that incorporates spatial
processes operating at different scales:
Forecasts of socio-economic developments from national models are
used as input to the model.
On the regional level a spatial interaction model serves to
distribute the national growth over 40 COROP regions. This model also
takes into account the relocation of activities from one region to the
other as an effect of differences in regional attractivity.
On the local level not only the Constrained Cellular Automata is
active, but also several indicator models that evaluate the land use
changes from different social, economic and ecological perspectives.
The transport model operates on the basis of 345 transport zones
and a detailed road network. This model evaluates the effect of streams
of traffic on congestion and accessibility. the LOV recognizes that the
spatial distribution of activities, in particular residential and
employment, generates traffic streams. Their effect on the level of
congestion and accessibility has a direct feedback to the relative
attractivity of different location and regions.
It is clear that an integrated model of such complex interaction is
subject to a large degree of uncertainty. Managing this uncertainty is
an important factor in using the model and has been a central issue in
research and development.
The model has been extensively calibrated and validated (RIKS
2004)
Sensitivity analysis, calibration, and validation is largely
automatized by dedicated algorithms and tools (Straatman et al 2004,
RIKS 2004).
Spatial similarity measures are developed for a balanced
evaluation of map similarity. (Hagen 2003, Power et al. 2001)
The LOV can be run in Monte Carlo modus, which allows to obtain a
spatial distribution of likelyhood of land use transitions under the
influence of uncertainty and error propagation
The LOV is developed by the Research Institue for Knowledge Systems
(www.riks.nl) for the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
(www.mnp.nl), who is owner of the software (The
LOV is developed using the Geonamica framework, which is owned by RIKS BV). It
is part of the LUMOS spatial modelling toolbox. For more information on this
toolbox visit www.lumos.info.
Literature:
Engelen, G., White, R., & Nijs (de), T. (2003). Environment Explorer:
Spatial support system for the integrated assessment of socio-economic
and environmental policies in the Netherlands. Integrated assessment,
4(2), 97-105.
Geurs, K., Hagen, A., Hoen, A., & Wee (van), B. (2003, 6-10 October). Ex
post evaluation of Dutch spatial planning and infrastructure policies,.
Paper presented at the European Transport Conference, Strasbourg,
France.
Hagen, A. (2003). Fuzzy set approach to assessing similarity of
categorical maps. International Journal of Geographical Information
Science, 17(3), 235-249.
Nijs (de), T. C. M., de Niet, R., & Crommentuijn, L. (2004).
Constructing land-use maps of the Netherlands in 2030. Journal of
Environmental Management, 72(1-2), 35-42.
Power, C., Simms, A., & White, R. (2001). Hierarchical fuzzy pattern
matching for the regional comparison of land use maps. International
Journal of Geographical Information Sci-ence, 15(1), 77-100.
RIKS (2004). LeefOmgevingsVerkenner: Kalibratie van de LOV. Research
report commissioned by RIVM, Maastricht, 1-162
Straatman, B., White, R., & Engelen, G. (2004). Towards an automatic
calibration procedure for constrained cellular automata. Computers,
Environment and Urban Systems, 28(1-2), 149-170.
White, R., & Engelen, G. (1997). Cellular automata as the basis of
integrated dynamic regional modelling. Environment and Planning B:
Planning and Design, 24, 235-246.
A. Hagen-Zanker, J. van Loon, A. Maas, B. Straatman, T. de Nijs and G.
Engelen,
Measuring performance of land use models: An evaluation framework for
the calibration and validation of integrated land use models featuring
cellular automata,
Paper presented at 14th European Colloquium on Theoretical and
Quantitative Geography, held 9-13 September 2005 in Tomar (Portugal)
Karst T. Geurs & Bert van Wee (2006, in press) Ex Post Evaluation of 30
Years Compact Urban Development in the Netherlands, Urban Studies 41(3)
